Economic bad news is everywhere

Accolades over the last few years about a glowing economy and booming Wall Street always seemed off, and recent economic news is putting these claims under the knife.

Certainly, the crumbing stock indexes and continued poor showing of the bond markets indicate that stock buy-backs have created a bubble that is now popping.

For those outside Wall Street, the economy has been ho-hum at best and downright hostile to most. Initial jobs and income numbers are seemingly always being revised downward as new data emerges. Wisconsin farmers continue to take it on the chin. And, the accelerating trend of companies contracting out rather than hiring employees is leading more and more folks to become second-class residents of these companies.

The economy and job growth have not been good for a long time, especially here in mid-western states like Wisconsin. In other words, not only is the bucket empty, but it may have no bottom. As Jake explains:

More than 2 years later, we are back below 26,000. That’s despite all of the corporate tax cuts and stock buybacks that have inflated earnings per share. And now we have slower job growth and GDP growth than we were seeing before the Tax Scam became law.

I think that reality had a lot to do with the market falling apart with today’s rate cut. The Fed’s message wasn’t “We will be OK and get by.” It was “THINGS ARE REALLY MESSED UP AND WE FEEL WE HAVE TO DO SOMETHING BIG!” And now, there isn’t much left that the Fed CAN do.

Planet blows up

Economic indicators at the end of 2019

As usual, I am piggy-backing on the good work Jake is doing.

The economy of late

Over the past several weeks, Jake has been posting extensively about the economic reports being released.

Gold standard job numbers

Reports on these numbers are a daily occurrence of late. As of Friday, Dec. 6th, the Department is touting Wisconsin as a national leader in job growth.

Yes, Jake notes, wages are up, but there are some holes to this news that means no one should be popping champagne corks just yet. Jake observes that these job numbers actually under-report the growth that was being reported in the monthly jobs reports. The recent rise in unemployment during the latter half of 2019, in addition, could either indicate a hotter, more competitive job market or a job market that is beginning to cool down.

Jake also points out some of the key takeaways from the Wisconsin’s Shifting Job Market report from the Wisconsin Policy Forum. This report provides an examination of the job growth (or lack of growth) in Wisconsin over a ten-year period, from 2008 to 2018. As Jake explains:

The Policy Forum goes on to note that the Madison area has done exceptionally well in this 10-year time period for overall job growth, and in particular in these high-paying, educated/skilled positions.

For example, the Madison metro area has experienced strong job growth in general since 2008, with employment growing by over 54,000 overall (16%) and in 17 of the 22 occupational groups. Perhaps most strikingly, employment in highly coveted computer and mathematical occupations—which include software and web developers and computer programmers—has led the way, growing faster than in any other group.

* * *

[Manufacturing jobs, on the other hand, have been stagnant or in decline, particularly in the Milwaukee area.] And that trend has not gotten any better in 2019, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics says that manufacturing employment in the Milwaukee metro area is at its lowest level in more than 8 years, with a decline of 2,000 manufacturing jobs over the last 12 months.

That being said, the Milwaukee metro as a whole has rebounded some in 2019, with health care being a huge reasons for its job growth. As have the 2 next largest metropolitan areas in the state, for that matter. While these numbers aren’t adjusted for seasonality (and therefore require a year-over-year comparison), the Madison, Milwaukee and Green Bay areas have done better for adding jobs than the rest of the state.

[One year] Job growth Oct 2018-Oct 2019
Milwaukee metro +11,800 (+1.3%)
Madison metro +4,700 (+1.2%)
Green Bay metro +2,400 (+1.3%)

The down side is that while the remainder of the state outside of those 3 metro areas accounts for just over 1/2 of the state’s employees, it’s actually lost 5,100 jobs (-0.3%) while the Bigger 3 have grown. And many of those [remaining] areas have also been stagnating in population growth with lower educational levels.

The full jobs data for the year from June 2018 to June 2019 also has some revealing information. According to Jake:

Remarkably, [Wisconsin’s] 0.40% rate of [job] growth and 39th-place rankng in the US put Wisconsin 3rd out of 7 Midwest states for private sector job growth, with only Minnesota (+0.61%) and Indiana (+0.70%) doing better than us. So unlike much of the 2010s, we’re not trailing much of our region, but our region is badly below the US rate of growth of 1.25%. Which sounds a whole lot like the 2000s before the Great Recession, which wasn’t good for the Midwest even before the economy caved in.

If you go into Wisconsin’s figures by county, this stat jumps out at you.

Private sector job change, June 2018- June 2019
Dane County +5,033
Rest of State +4,987

Total job change, June 2018 – June 2019
Dane County +6,595
Rest of State +2,745

That’s right, Dane County added more than half the private sector jobs in Wisconsin over that 12-month period, and over 70% of [total] jobs. And literally 1/2 of the 72 counties in Wisconsin LOST jobs between June 2018 and June 2019. Oh, but we’re the crazy hippie moonbats in Madison while the outstate GOPs are the ones in touch with how to grow business in 2019. Riiiight.

FoxConn

Jake has the latest on a Libertarian-leaning think tank pointing out that FoxConn truly is turning into a shadow theater of the absurd:

  • The subsidies granted to FoxConn will depress economic activity in the state for a decade or more.
  • The state is saddled with economic waste because of Wisconsin’s commitments to FoxConn that cannot now go to actual businesses that could use that money productively.
  • A recent Fox-Conn announcement about developing its Green Bay facility contained just a fraction of what was originally announced for that facility (seems to be a pattern with FoxConn) and has been met with a ‘believe it when we see it response.’

Update (10 Jan. 2019): Changed spelling of Fox-Conn to FoxConn.

Claim-filing in Wisconsin at record low but economy not booming

A June press release from the Department of Workforce Development declared Wisconsin’s record low unemployment rate:

BLS Data: Wisconsin’s 3.1% Unemployment Rate Tied for 7th Lowest in Nation

State’s Labor Force Participation Rate also tied for 5th highest in country

MADISON – Department of Workforce Development (DWD) Secretary Ray Allen released the following statement following today’s U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) release showing Wisconsin tied for the 7th lowest unemployment rate in the nation, significantly lower than the national rate. The release also noted that Wisconsin’s addition of 40,400 total non-farm jobs from May 2016 to May 2017 was statistically significant and Wisconsin’s labor force participation rate was tied for 5th highest in the country:

“Not only is Wisconsin’s 3.1 percent unemployment rate a near record-low for our state, but our rate is lower than that of 42 other states, including the neighboring states of Illinois, Michigan and Minnesota, and tied with Iowa for 7th lowest in the country,” Secretary Allen said. “We also are tied for the 5th highest labor force participation rate in the country, ahead of the neighboring states of Illinois, Iowa and Michigan. Under Governor Walker’s leadership, Wisconsin’s employers and communities are reaping economic rewards from a winning combination of a best-in-class workforce and innovative. proven worker training programs.”

Highlights of Friday’s BLS release of state-by-state employment and unemployment data for May 2017 include:

  • Wisconsin’s 3.1 percent unemployment rate tied for the 7th lowest in the nation in May 2017 and was significantly lower than the national rate of 4.3 percent.
  • Wisconsin added a statistically significant 40,400 total non-farm jobs from May 2016 to May 2017.
  • Wisconsin’s unemployment rate decline of 1.0 percent from 4.1% in May 2016 to 3.1% in May 2017 was statistically significant.
  • Wisconsin’s labor force participation rate of 68.8% tied for 5th best in the nation in May 2017.

Other indicators of Wisconsin’s economy include:

  • Both total labor force and employment in Wisconsin remained at all-time high in May, while the number of unemployed individuals was its lowest point since February 2000.
  • The rate of 3.1 percent is the second-lowest rate on record for Wisconsin (the lowest rate was 3.0 percent in May-July 1999).
  • Wisconsin’s January (3.9 percent) to May (3.1 percent) unemployment rate decline of 0.8 percentage points in 2017 is the steepest January-May decline since 1983.
  • Wisconsin’s labor force participation rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 68.8 percent, while the U.S. labor force participation rate decreased to 62.7 percent in May.
  • Initial UI claims ended 2016 at their lowest level in their last 30 years. Year 2017 initial UI claims are running at their lowest levels since 1989.
  • Continuing unemployment claims ended 2016 at their lowest level since 1973. Continuing unemployment claims in Wisconsin are running the lowest in at least the past 30 years.

Friday’s BLS ‘Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary’ report

The last two points deserve particular note:

  • Initial UI claims ended 2016 at their lowest level in their last 30 years. Year 2017 initial UI claims are running at their lowest levels since 1989.
  • Continuing unemployment claims ended 2016 at their lowest level since 1973. Continuing unemployment claims in Wisconsin are running the lowest in at least the past 30 years.

These indicate that people have stopped filing unemployment claims at levels when in 1990 the population in Wisconsin was around 4.9 million and per capita income was $18,072 or in 1975 when the state population was around 4.6 million and per capita income was $6,086. For comparison, in 2014 the state’s population was nearly 5.8 million and per capita income was $44,585. And, from 1990 to the start of 2015, the civilian labor force in Wisconsin increased from 2,567,200 to 3,120,800 persons.

Furthermore, when the unemployment rate was similarly low in the late 1990s, per capita income rose by over 5% most of those years. As recent economic reports from COWS establish, however, income in Wisconsin is currently stagnant for most Wisconsin residents except for the very few at the top of the income ladder.

So, there are big contradictions in the Wisconsin labor force. People in Wisconsin are working and not filing unemployment claims. But, they are not getting any wage increases from employers who should be having trouble finding job applicants and so trying to entice people to switch jobs with offers of higher wages and greater job benefits.

Perhaps the Department has created a system where unemployment is much higher than the data indicates because people are NOT filing unemployment claims but instead taking low-wage, part-time work as a substitute in large part because full-time, high wage work is not available from employers who are not expanding or growing their businesses. COWS 2017 report on working Wisconsin reveals that the wealth and economic gains at the very top obscures the economic stagnation for the rest of the state’s residents. The August jobs report reinforces this conclusion, as Wisconsin job growth this summer remained stagnant (private sector jobs in July were revised to a 600 decline, August preliminary numbers indicate a 5,200 loss in private sector employment, and only June shows an anemic increase of 1,300 jobs after a revision).