Unemployment delays, part 4

Previous posts detailed the length of time and number of cases in the unemployment backlog in part 1, some of the mistakes by the Department that allow cases to be re-opened in part 2, and a place for stories and advice about how to find assistance in part 3.

Jake explains in posts on Nov. 14th and Nov. 19th that:

• job losses are now spiking both nationally and state-wide,
• the ensuing loss of PUA benefits at the end of 2020 is a fiscal cliff for millions, and
• continuing claims demonstrate that long-term job losses are becoming entrenched.

Wisconsin’s own jobs report for October 2020 reinforced these conclusions, as the state unemployment rate rose markedly because of losses in leisure and hospitality and the public sector.

The actual initial claims data indicates that the pandemic has created a systemic increase in the number of new initial claims being filed every single week.

Since the start of the pandemic, initial claims have leveled off to around 5x what was filed for the comparable week in 2019. There are two noticeable dips where the ratio dropped significantly down below five: first for the weeks 35-37 and again for the weeks 44-47. The reason for these dips, however, are quite different. In weeks 35-37, there was an actual decline in the number of initial claims being filed in 2020. In weeks 44-47, on the other hand, the drop in the ratio is not from a decline of initial claims in 2020 but from an increase in initial claims that were filed in 2019.

w/e 2020  Week  Ratio   2020    2019 
03/14/20    11  1.02    5,698   5,587
03/21/20    12  13.29   69,342  5,216
03/28/20    13  20.51   115,679 5,640
04/04/20    14  19.95   103,226 5,173
04/11/20    15  14.21   65,654  4,619
04/18/20    16  12.12   56,038  4,624
04/25/20    17  10.64   48,630  4,570
05/02/20    18  9.47    39,278  4,146
05/09/20    19  8.73    35,134  4,026
05/16/20    20  9.21    31,851  3,460
05/23/20    21  7.28    26,384  3,626
05/30/20    22  6.16    22,835  3,709
06/06/20    23  4.90    22,497  4,592
06/13/20    24  4.51    24,226  5,373
06/20/20    25  4.31    23,773  5,514
06/27/20    26  6.00    29,727  4,956
07/04/20    27  5.35    27,619  5,159
07/11/20    28  4.93    27,774  5,631
07/18/20    29  6.14    23,396  3,808
07/25/20    30  5.94    20,951  3,530
08/01/20    31  4.76    17,702  3,717
08/08/20    32  3.79    14,467  3,816
08/15/20    33  4.75    15,484  3,262
08/22/20    34  4.29    14,092  3,287
08/29/20    35  3.44    13,122  3,818
09/05/20    36  3.48    13,025  3,742
09/12/20    37  3.44    12,432  3,619
09/19/20    38  4.40    14,012  3,186
09/26/20    39  4.86    15,225  3,131
10/03/20    40  4.41    16,876  3,824
10/10/20    41  5.38    20,985  3,904
10/17/20    42  5.06    18,113  3,577
10/24/20    43  4.44    17,731  3,990
10/31/20    44  3.62    17,961  4,956
11/07/20    45  2.90    17,136  5,911
11/14/20    46  2.66    18,500  6,951
11/21/20    47  2.49    19,967  8,031
                6.81 1,090,844  160,094

As Wisconsin still has winter, there are a host of industries (road construction, landscaping, recreation, and others) that lay off their workers on a seasonal basis, and so there is a steady rise in initial claims every year for these Wisconsin workers. As a result, this latest dip in the ratio does NOT represent an actual decline in initial claims in 2020. Rather, all that is happening is that the number of cases in 2020 is simply not rising enough to match the increases from 2019. All told, pandemic-related claims are still much higher than last year, as Wisconsin has experienced an increase of roughly 7x the initial claims from what was previously filed in 2019.

And, most of these 2020 claimants are seeing their initial unemployment claims denied. The percentage of regular unemployment claims leading to a first payment of benefits is actually down in Wisconsin from before the pandemic.

For the months of January 2018 through February 2020, there were 632,728 initial claims in Wisconsin, of which 245,558 led to first payments, a percentage of regular unemployment claims being paid of 38.81%.

Here is the monthly initial claims data for Wisconsin for the months of the pandemic:

Month      Initial  1st Pay     %
10/31/20    62,178   10,156  16.33
09/30/20    50,918    9,981  19.60
08/31/20    68,312   11,677  17.09
07/31/20    120,078  15,252  12.70
06/30/20    112,520  19,034  16.92
05/31/20    135,138  35,508  26.28
04/30/20    243,208 183,828  75.58
03/31/20    239,501  29,272  12.22
          1,031,853 314,708  30.50%

Source: https://tcf-ui-data.shinyapps.io/ui-data-explorer/

So, during this pandemic, Wisconsin is actually paying out fewer claims than it did from before the pandemic. Less than one out of three initial claims are leading to a first payment, whereas before the pandemic nearly two our of every five claims was being paid.

For comparison, here are initial claims and first payment data during the pandemic for several other states:

ST  Initial     1st Pay     %
NC  1,452,638    700,687  48.24
MI  1,997,061  1,168,887  58.53
FL  3,298,791  1,578,803  47.86
IL  2,037,211  1,063,231  52.19
AR    412,425    179,558  43.54
PA  2,233,652  1,201,647  53.80
IN  1,322,840    553,568  41.85
OR    621,445    357,489  57.53

Source: https://tcf-ui-data.shinyapps.io/ui-data-explorer/

In all these state but Illinois, the percentage of first payments is up from before the pandemic (Illinois declined slightly from a pre-pandemic percentage of 56.34%). Even Oregon, subject to a state law suit over the slow claims-processing in that state, has managed to pay out well more than half of the claims it has managed to process.

All of these claims being denied in Wisconsin has led to a staggering backlog in hearings.

Prior to the pandemic, appeal tribunals were issuing around 1,200 to 1,500 decisions a month. Here is what happened with the pandemic:

Month  Pending  Filed   Decided
Oct    12,771   4,480   3,289
Sept.  11,052   4,414   3,063
Aug     9,655   4,860   3,236
July    6,719   4,442   4,083
June    6,309   3,307   3,363
May     6,296   4,922   3,724
April   5,090   6,034   2,492
March   1,520   1,952   1,565
               34,411  24,815

In the last few months, more than 4,000 appeals of initial determinations have been filed every single month. Administrative law judges are now issuing more than 3,000 decisions these same months. But, they cannot keep up, and the backlog of pending cases is, at the end of October 2020, nearly 13,000 cases. If not a single appeal was filed after October 31st, it would still take around four months to clear the current backlog of cases that need a hearing.

For comparison, in Illinois, which has twice the number of initial claims that Wisconsin has, pending cases before an administrative law judge at the end of October numbered just 2,069. Pennsylvania has a backlog at the end of October of 3,950 pending cases — one-third of the backlog in Wisconsin — even though Pennsylvania has handled more than twice the number of initial claims than Wisconsin has.

Given the backlog of cases in Wisconsin, it is no wonder that folks should now expect to wait four to six months for their hearing. Because Wisconsin has kept every possible disqualification alive during this pandemic except for the four job searches a week and so is investigating any and all potential disqualifications — even issues going as far back as January 2019 — the system simply cannot keep up. The more people that are hired at the Department simply means more cases that have to be adjudicated.

So, if not approved for unemployment benefits soon after filing an initial claim, expect to wait several months or longer for a decision. And, if that initial determination does not go your way, expect to wait four to eight months for your hearing after filing your appeal.

All I can offer at the moment is the possible assistance described in part 3 of this series. Unemployment in Wisconsin truly is broken.